Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average count of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh government figures. However, public safety experts have cautioned that murder data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the US. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an apparently steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, security analysts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it might mask days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these actions, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.