Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.