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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.