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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still